CeeDee Lamb Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 9:11 PM EST

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+115/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accumulate 9.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this season (31.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (20.3%).
CeeDee Lamb has been among the top pass-catching WRs this year, averaging an impressive 5.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 87th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.2%) versus wide receivers this year (69.2%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Cowboys rank as the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 56.1% pass rate.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 6th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in football.
CeeDee Lamb's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 59.7%.

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