CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-135/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 71.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Cowboys offensive scheme to skew 3.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer now calling the plays.
The Chargers defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (40.8 per game) this year.
The projections expect CeeDee Lamb to total 8.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
CeeDee Lamb's 76.8% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a a noteable progression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 71.7% mark.
With an outstanding 10.3 adjusted yards per target (82nd percentile) this year, CeeDee Lamb stands as one of the leading WRs in the game in football.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Dallas Cowboys to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cowboys to run the 5th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.7 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much smaller part of his offense's passing game this year (22.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (28.8%).
CeeDee Lamb has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (62.0 per game) than he did last season (94.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb's 72.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a a remarkable decline in his receiving proficiency over last season's 82.0 mark.

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