CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 68.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 59.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to total 8.7 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his team's passing game this season (29.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (19.7%).
CeeDee Lamb has posted significantly more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (79.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders safeties project as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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