CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 77.5 (-165/+135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 140.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to accrue 12.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
CeeDee Lamb has been much more involved in his team's air attack this season (32.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (20.3%).

Favors Under

The Cowboys have been the 7th-least pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 57.2% pass rate.
CeeDee Lamb's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 62.9%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have used play action on a lowly 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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