CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+103/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +133 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a more important option in his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).
CeeDee Lamb has accrued significantly more air yards this season (94.0 per game) than he did last season (82.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb's 76.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 49.1.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
CeeDee Lamb's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 57.8%.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys have incorporated play action on a mere 23.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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