CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+270/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys are a giant 7.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The Dallas Cowboys have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 66.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be much more involved in his offense's air attack near the end zone this week (22.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (8.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
CeeDee Lamb's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 18.8%.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed the 9th-least passing TDs in football to wideouts: 0.83 per game since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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