CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-165).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 9th-most in the league.
CeeDee Lamb has put up far more air yards this season (95.0 per game) than he did last season (79.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb's 70.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 47.4.
CeeDee Lamb ranks in the 89th percentile among WRs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.46 per game.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a massive 17.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.5%) versus WRs this year (63.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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