CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+126/-171).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -153 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -171.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run among all games this week at 136.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
CeeDee Lamb has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.2% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
CeeDee Lamb has posted quite a few more air yards this season (101.0 per game) than he did last season (79.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb's 75.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 47.4.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a big 17.5-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: least in football.
The Houston Texans pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (62.7%) versus wideouts this year (62.7%).
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the least TDs through the air in the league to wide receivers: 0.33 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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