CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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CeeDee Lamb

NFL · Player Props

CeeDee Lamb

WR · Dallas Cowboys

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

CeeDee Lamb Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
CeeDee Lamb has been an integral part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.9% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile among WRs.
CeeDee Lamb has notched quite a few more air yards this year (94.0 per game) than he did last year (82.0 per game).
CeeDee Lamb's 74.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 49.1.

Favors Under

The Cowboys are a giant 10-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in the NFL.
The New York Giants pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (61.3%) versus wideouts this year (61.3%).
The New York Giants defense has conceded the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game this year.
The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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