Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Cedric Tillman

NFL · Player Props

Cedric Tillman

WR · Cleveland Browns

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:56 PM EST

Analysis

Cedric Tillman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns may take to the air less in this game (and hand the ball off more) given that they be forced to start backup QB Joe Flacco.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 66.3 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in football.
The Browns offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Browns to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
With a weak 15.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (22nd percentile) this year, Cedric Tillman ranks among the worst pass-catching wide receivers in football.
With a bad 49.6% Adjusted Catch Rate (18th percentile) this year, Cedric Tillman has been as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.
Cedric Tillman rates as one of the least efficient receivers in the league, averaging just 4.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 17th percentile when it comes to wide receivers
The Jaguars cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best unit in football this year in covering receivers.

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