Case Keenum Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Case Keenum

NFL · Player Props

Case Keenum

QB · Chicago Bears

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 28, 2026 8:17 PM EST

Analysis

Case Keenum Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1567/-1861).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will be forced to start backup QB Case Keenum in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
A throwing game script is indicated by the Bears being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see 129.0 plays on offense called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
The 2nd-most plays in football have been called by the Chicago Bears since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.1 per game on average).
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 57.3% pass rate.
The projections expect Case Keenum to attempt 33.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-fewest among all QBs.
Since the start of last season, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded a feeble 64.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the best rate in football.
Since the start of last season, the stout Philadelphia Eagles defense has allowed a paltry 0.84 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the best rate in football.

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