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Case Keenum

Case Keenum TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans

Case Keenum TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-196/+152).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

The Houston Texans offense has played at the 9th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.94 seconds per snap.

This year, the feeble Tennessee Titans defense has conceded a massive 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 4th-biggest rate in the NFL.

The Titans linebackers profile as the 4th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Houston Texans to pass on 55.2% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Right now, the 5th-least pass-oriented team in football in the red zone (52.4% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Houston Texans.

This week, Case Keenum is forecasted by the model to average the 10th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.3.

The Tennessee Titans defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest TDs through the air in the league: 1.08 per game this year.

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