Carson Wentz TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Carson Wentz

QB · Washington Commanders

TD Passes

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Carson Wentz TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+106/-141).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -141.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-fastest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 26.90 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 2nd-highest level in the NFL vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season (74.5%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars cornerbacks project as the 8th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Washington Commanders O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.75 seconds before the pass (2nd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 11th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Commanders have been the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 51.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in football.
Carson Wentz has been among the least on-target passers in the NFL since the start of last season with a 60.9% Completion%, ranking in the 19th percentile.