Carson Wentz Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Carson Wentz

QB · Washington Commanders

Completions

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Carson Wentz Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-136/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -136.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Carson Wentz has been among the least accurate QBs in the league this year with a 60.6% Completion%, ranking in the 22nd percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 2nd-lowest clip in football vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (64.5%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.