Cameron Brate Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Cameron Brate

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM UTC

Analysis

Cameron Brate Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+227/-371).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +377 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +227.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Cameron Brate has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
Cameron Brate has notched a colossal 24.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 79th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

Cameron Brate has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing just 63.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 17th percentile.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 8th-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.