Cam Sims Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Cam Sims

NFL · Player Props

Cam Sims

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Cam Sims Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-111/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Cam Sims to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack this week (10.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.3% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (76.9%) versus wideouts this year (76.9%).

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 27.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the NFL.
Cam Sims's receiving performance has worsened this year, averaging just 0.5 yards per game vs 1.6 last year.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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