Calvin Ridley Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Calvin Ridley

NFL · Player Props

Calvin Ridley

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 19, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Calvin Ridley Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+123/-169).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a massive 62.3 per game on average).
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
Calvin Ridley has run a route on 92.5% of his offense's dropbacks this year, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

With a poor 58.6% Adjusted Catch Rate (23rd percentile) this year, Calvin Ridley stands as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.
The Saints pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (57.2%) vs. WRs this year (57.2%).
The Saints linebackers grade out as the 8th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

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