Calvin Austin III Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Calvin Austin III

NFL · Player Props

Calvin Austin III

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Calvin Austin III Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+112/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
In this week's contest, Calvin Austin is expected by the projections to place in the 77th percentile among wideouts with 6.7 targets.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
With a poor 54.3% Adjusted Completion% (20th percentile) this year, Calvin Austin has been as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among WRs.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been excellent this year, grading out as the 3rd-best in football.

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