Calvin Austin III Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Calvin Austin III

NFL · Player Props

Calvin Austin III

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Calvin Austin III Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 64.6% pass rate.
The model projects the Steelers to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 10th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a massive 60.4 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

The Steelers are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Calvin Austin has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, catching a mere 53.2% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 15th percentile among wide receivers
Calvin Austin has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a measly 4.60 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 9th percentile when it comes to wideouts
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 3rd-fewest receiving yards per game in football (just 128.0) versus wide receivers since the start of last season.

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