Cade Otton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 8, 2026 9:12 PM EST

Analysis

Cade Otton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -9-point disadvantage, the Buccaneers are huge underdogs in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
The model projects Cade Otton to accrue 5.9 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 86th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Cade Otton's 38.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 29.0.
Cade Otton comes in as one of the leading tight ends in the pass game this year, averaging an outstanding 3.6 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The projections expect the Buccaneers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.
Cade Otton's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 74.8% to 61.9%.