Cade Otton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-180/+150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cade Otton has been less involved as a potential target this year (87.3% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (63.9%).
In this week's game, Cade Otton is expected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 81st percentile among tight ends with 4.7 targets.
With a terrific 3.4 adjusted catches per game (75th percentile) this year, Cade Otton stands among the leading tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Buccaneers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 56.2 plays per game.
This year, the stout Atlanta Falcons defense has given up a meager 69.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.

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