Cade Otton Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Cade Otton

NFL · Player Props

Cade Otton

TE · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Cade Otton Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-102/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line indicates an extreme passing game script for the Buccaneers, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (38.7 per game) this year.
Cade Otton's 86.3% Route Participation% this year indicates a noteable improvement in his passing offense volume over last year's 63.9% mark.
This week, Cade Otton is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 82nd percentile among TEs with 4.8 targets.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 5.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are anticipated by the projections to run just 60.0 offensive plays in this game: the lowest number on the slate this week.
This year, the daunting 49ers defense has surrendered a puny 63.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-best rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's collection of LBs has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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