Bryce Perkins TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Bryce Perkins

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Bryce Perkins TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup QB Bryce Perkins this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Rams are a giant 16.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Rams have been the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 65.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 132.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Rams O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers rank as the 6th-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Los Angeles Rams have utilized play action on a measly 21.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.