Brock Wright Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Brock Wright

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Detroit Lions · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 7, 2026 10:02 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Wright Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+852/-1011).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by the projections to see 129.0 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The Detroit Lions have run the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.9 plays per game.
In regards to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Lions ranks as the 7th-best in football this year.
Brock Wright's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 73.2% to 81.1%.
This year, the shaky Dolphins defense has conceded a staggering 81.5% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Lions are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their typical approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 55.3% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.7 per game) this year.
Brock Wright has totaled a meager 2.0 air yards per game this year: just 25th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Brock Wright's 4.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 10.4.

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