Brock Wright Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Wright Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-144/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 8th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have used play action on a lowly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.