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Brock Wright

Brock Wright Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills

Brock Wright Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.0 (-150/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 2.0 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box against opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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