Brock Wright Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Brock Wright

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Wright Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 5th-largest volume of plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Bears defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (40.0 per game) this year.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Brock Wright's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 77.7% to 90.0%.

Favors Under

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Lions are overwhelmingly favored in this week's game, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
The model projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 123.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Brock Wright's 6.8 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a substantial decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 9.9 figure.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 3.38 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in the league.

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