Brock Wright Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brock Wright

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Wright Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the Detroit Lions ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Brock Wright's 100.0% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a noteable growth in his pass-catching ability over last year's 77.7% mark.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
In regards to air yards, Brock Wright ranks in the lowly 25th percentile among tight ends this year, averaging just 2.0 per game.
Brock Wright's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this year, compiling just 6.43 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.88 figure last year.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.47 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

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