Brock Wright Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Brock Wright

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Wright Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-113/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 4th-highest Completion% in the NFL (76.2%) vs. TEs this year (76.2%).
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) to tight ends this year.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.33 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.

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