Brock Wright Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Brock Wright

NFL · Player Props

Brock Wright

TE · Detroit Lions

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Wright Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+361/-715).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +389 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +361.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Green Bay Packers safeties rank as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in pass coverage.
The Green Bay Packers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 7th-slowest in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.1 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers defense has allowed the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.12 per game this year.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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