Brock Purdy Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 9:37 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+355/-400).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the NFL.
With an excellent 72.4% Adjusted Completion% (90th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy rates among the most on-target QBs in the NFL.
With an impressive rate of 1.93 per game (98th percentile), Brock Purdy ranks among the leading TD passers in the league since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the San Francisco 49ers offense to be the 2nd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 30.33 seconds per play.
While Brock Purdy has garnered 0.0% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in San Francisco's run game near the goal line in this week's contest at 12.4%.
With a stellar rate of 0.27 rushing touchdowns per game (93rd percentile), Brock Purdy places as one of the best rushing QBs in the league since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Broncos defense since the start of last season (66.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Since the start of last season, the fierce Denver Broncos defense has surrendered a measly 1.10 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-best rate in football.

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