Brock Purdy Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-340).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -290 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -340.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers rank as the 5th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 63.6% red zone pass rate.
Brock Purdy's throwing accuracy has improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 70.0% to 82.0%.
With an impressive ratio of 1.79 per game (92nd percentile), Brock Purdy rates among the leading TD passers in football since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the deficient Cardinals defense has been torched for a staggering 1.79 passing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 6th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme rushing game script for the 49ers, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 52.9% of their chances: the 6th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 125.0 total plays called: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Brock Purdy to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the end zone in this week's game (14.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).
With a fantastic ratio of 0.29 rushing touchdowns per game (93rd percentile), Brock Purdy ranks among the best rushing quarterbacks in football since the start of last season.