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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-169/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -169.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 2nd-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the 49ers this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).

Since the start of last season, the deficient Cardinals defense has yielded a whopping 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the highest rate in the NFL.

The Arizona Cardinals linebackers profile as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread implies an extreme running game script for the 49ers, who are a massive favorite by 9.5 points.

Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 8th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (49.5% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the 49ers.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the projections to run just 61.6 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.

In this week's game, Brock Purdy is projected by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 29.4.

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