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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+108/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

The Rams defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, inducing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the league (34.9 per game) since the start of last season.

Brock Purdy has been one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season with an exceptional 69.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 100th percentile.

With an impressive ratio of 1.78 per game (93rd percentile), Brock Purdy rates as one of the best TD throwers in the NFL since the start of last season.

The Rams defense has been torched for the 8th-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 1.47 per game since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 54.9% of their chances: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.

At the present time, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (49.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the San Francisco 49ers.

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by the projection model to run only 61.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-lowest number among all teams this week.

The 2nd-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the San Francisco 49ers since the start of last season (a measly 54.7 per game on average).

This week, Brock Purdy is expected by our trusted projection set to average the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.5.

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