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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+143/-199).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.

Opposing QBs have averaged 35.2 pass attempts per game versus the Bills defense this year: 10th-most in the league.

Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the league vs. the Bills defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's LB corps has been terrible this year, profiling as the worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to pass on 59.0% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 49ers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 31.0 passes this week, on average: the 8th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

More Brock Purdy Player Props

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