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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower run volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game versus the Seahawks defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the 49ers being a 6-point favorite in this game.

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 53.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the model to have just 127.3 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.

Brock Purdy's throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.6% to 65.5%.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Seattle's collection of safeties has been tremendous this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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