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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +108 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football.

This year, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded a massive 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-worst rate in football.

This year, the feeble Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded a colossal 2.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

With a 47.6% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year, the 9th-least pass-centric team in the NFL in these situations has been the San Francisco 49ers.

The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

In this game, Brock Purdy is projected by the model to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.4.

More Brock Purdy Player Props

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