Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Brock Purdy's 73.1% Adjusted Completion% this season marks a a meaningful growth in his throwing accuracy over last season's 66.4% mark.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to pass on 54.5% of their downs: the 5th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.3% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers offense as the slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 31.28 seconds per snap.
Windy weather conditions (like the 16-mph being called for in this game) generally cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher run volume.

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