Brock Purdy TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Brock Purdy has been among the most on-target quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season with a stellar 66.8% Completion%, ranking in the 80th percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 7.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 55.4% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brock Purdy to attempt 32.2 passes in this contest, on average: the 7th-least of all QBs.

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