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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -106 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 11.5-point advantage, the 49ers are a massive favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the 49ers to run on 48.2% of their chances: the 3rd-greatest clip among all teams this week.

After making up 6.9% of his offense's carries last season, Brock Purdy has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this season, currently comprising 14.0%.

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 28th-worst group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the San Francisco 49ers are projected by the predictive model to call only 60.2 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.

The 49ers have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

The New England Patriots defense has had the best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, yielding just 3.63 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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