Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2024

Updated Dec 2, 2024 1:16 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 44.5% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to notch 4.2 carries in this contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
The Bills defensive tackles profile as the 9th-worst collection of DTs in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the 49ers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.8 plays per game.

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