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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Jacksonville Jaguars vs San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-109/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to run on 45.3% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip among all teams this week.

In regards to run-blocking (and the impact it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the 49ers profiles as the 7th-best in the league last year.

Brock Purdy has rushed for many more yards per game (12.0) this season than he did last season (3.0).

Brock Purdy's running effectiveness has been refined this season, totaling 4.96 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a measly 2.11 figure last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the 49ers to run the 6th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The 4th-fewest plays in football have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a lowly 53.5 per game on average).

Opposing squads have rushed for the 3rd-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 83.0 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

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