Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 10:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-150/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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