Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 5:46 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 260.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 251.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 260.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 4th-most in football.
With a stellar tally of 256.0 adjusted passing yards per game (91st percentile), Brock Purdy stands as one of the leading quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
This year, the shaky Buccaneers defense has given up a colossal 257.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing quarterbacks: the 3rd-worst in football.
This year, the poor Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded a massive 73.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 7th-worst rate in football.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Brock Purdy is projected by the model to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 31.4.
Brock Purdy's passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 64.9%.

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