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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 238.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 233.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 238.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Brock Purdy profiles as one of the best quarterbacks in football last year, averaging a fantastic 299.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.

Brock Purdy checks in as one of the most on-target QBs in football last year with a stellar 68.6% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.

With a stellar 9.32 adjusted yards-per-target (100th percentile) last year, Brock Purdy stands as one of the most efficient QBs in the league.

Last year, the poor New York Jets defense has been gouged for the most yards-after-the-catch in the league to the opposing side: a massive 6.13 YAC.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 5.5 points.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 53.5 plays per game.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

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