Brock Purdy Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Carries

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Our trusted projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-most run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 49.3% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
When it comes to run-blocking (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the San Francisco 49ers profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL last year.
The Tampa Bay defensive ends profile as the worst group of DEs in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.

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