Brian Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 62.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
The predictive model expects Brian Robinson to notch 14.6 rush attempts in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson has been a more important option in his team's running game this year (63.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (52.4%).
This year, the anemic New York Giants run defense has conceded a whopping 152.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to the opposing side: the 3rd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Commanders to run on 39.9% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the effect it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Commanders profiles as the 6th-worst in the league last year.
Brian Robinson has rushed for substantially fewer adjusted yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (63.0).

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