Brian Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have run the 4th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a massive 61.4 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Brian Robinson to total 14.7 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
After accounting for 52.4% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Brian Robinson has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, now comprising 73.4%.
Brian Robinson has picked up 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (91st percentile).
Brian Robinson has been among the leading RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.28 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 76th percentile.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 10.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders as the 2nd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 35.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 11th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Commanders O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.