Brian Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 52.5 (-108/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 55.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 52.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Brian Robinson has played on 44.8% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to garner 15.0 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson has grinded out 64.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (91st percentile).
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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