Brian Robinson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-most run-centric team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 42.8% run rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to total 13.8 carries in this game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among running backs.
Brian Robinson has received 51.8% of his team's carries this year, placing him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Brian Robinson has averaged 62.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in football among RBs (85th percentile).

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Brian Robinson's running effectiveness (3.92 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (20th percentile among RBs).
Brian Robinson has been among the weakest running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging just 2.67 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 22nd percentile.

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